September 25th, 2008
Seeing (a little bit) Ahead
I read once that writing a novel can be like a road at night, you need not see the end to reach the end. I write very differently, I write whatever seems fun and then I link it all up, but I can imagine how this “just write until you are done” approach works.
One time I was writing down an idea for a new technology, and the reviewer wanted to know how many customers it would have in five years. Of course I had no idea, so he told me it was irrelevant whether my forecast was right or wrong, it was just to prove I could make one.
Transcriptorial: They ask me where I am taking them. / Who knows? Ahead.
one could only make the best forecast if all the necessary data are there to be analyzed (and the analyst knows what he’s doing).
assessing the validity of a forecast necessitates that one knows what data is there for the analyst to work on.
in the same breath, an analyst would take into consideration that there are a lot of external factors that may affect the expected results thereby must be willing to continuously research, analyze and study the extenuating forces (so as to be ready to apply different approaches whenever they are needed, wherever they will be effective).
an analyst should also set up metrics so as to monitor the marketing strategies that are working and those that aren’t. this would ensure that once a campaign is working, it would stay put and the factors that make it work studied; and once a marketing thrust isn’t effective, it will be scrapped and the debilitating factors dissected.
this will later guide the direction of making or modifying future forecasts.
the key to all this is: if one wants to create a valid forecast, one has to have valid historical data and a macro and micro view of both present external and internal factors.
once everything’s there, i can take them (hopefully) ahead.
if the data needed isn’t there yet, then i’ll make do with what is presented and make the best forecast i can come up with given what i have(data, resources, etc).
“They ask me where I am taking them. / Who knows? Ahead.”
I find it fascinating that I read this today. Just a few minuets ago I got off of the bus…thing is the bus driver kept driving after the stops. Everyone got up and was screaming ‘where are you taking us!!!” she said she didn’t know herself where to. After everyone sat down she finally went back around and stopped at all 4 stops she passed.
That’s the best thing I’ve heard all day
sometimes like ants on a Mobius Strip
as of lately i’ve been feeling the insane urge to just ride the bus to the end, or run to where my feet take me, and get insanely lost and laugh when i call people asking them to tell me how to get home.
i really want an adventure. i want to run away to some random place, wheresoever seems nice at the time, and laugh the whole time because i’ll be lost and it’ll be fantastic.
in which direction should i begin, would you say?
Go west, young man.
If you intend on getting lost, you will find amazing things, but only after you’ve felt fear. It’s the overcoming of the fear, the breaking of boundaries that aren’t actually there that leads you to discovering who you are.
The unknown ignites fear, but holds immense beauty.
‘Well, we know where we’re going, but we don’t know where we’ve been.
And we know what we’re showing, but we can’t say what we’ve seen.
And we’re not little children, and we know just what we want,
And the future’s uncertain, give us time to work it out…
We’re on the road to nowhere…’
(TalkingHeads)
A man once came up to me on the way to the train station and asked me where he was going. I told him “north”. Someone else said “wherever you like”. I’d really like to know where he ended up.